Investors seem undeterred by the "divergence" between companies and analysts.
This year, there has been a rare divergence in the earnings outlook for U.S. companies: analysts have lowered their expectations, while corporate guidance points to another strong earnings season.
Data from foreign media shows that analysts expect earnings for S&P 500 companies to grow by 4.2% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from the 7% forecast in mid-July. On the other hand, corporate guidance suggests that earnings will grow by about 16%.
BI's Chief Equity Strategist, Gina Martin Adams, said that this difference is "unusually large," and the clearly strong outlook indicates that "companies should easily exceed expectations."
She wrote in a report, "In the face of economic uncertainty, companies emphasize efficiency, and profit margins should continue to rise."
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At the same time, Citigroup's earnings revision index shows that earnings revision momentum was strong in September, falling to the lowest level since December 2022. Despite analysts' concerns, the S&P 500 reached a new historical high last Friday, and has risen by 22% so far in 2024, marking the best start since 1997.
This suggests that investors are not deterred by the lowered expectations, but are betting that this earnings season will once again deliver positive surprises, just like in the first quarter of this year, when the expected growth was 3.8%, but the actual growth was 7.9%.
The third quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks began on a positive note. JPMorgan Chase reported an unexpected increase in net interest income in the third quarter and raised expectations for this key revenue, with the stock closing up about 4.5% last Friday, while Wells Fargo rose by 5.6%, indicating that the impact of rate cuts was not as bad as expected.
Morgan Stanley's Chief Strategist, Michael Wilson, wrote in a report on Monday, "Some large bank stocks have de-risked ahead of the earnings season in mid-September, which lowers the threshold for expectations for the quarter. Initial results of the earnings season suggest that banks are breaking through this threshold."
Of course, there are also some warning signs. Earlier this month, Nike withdrew its full-year sales guidance before the arrival of its incoming new CEO, Elliott Hill, to reset Wall Street's expectations. In late September, FedEx plummeted after warning that its business would slow down in the coming year.Bank of America strategists Ohsung Kwon and Savita Subramanian wrote in a report last week, "Now that the rate-cutting cycle has begun, the main focus is on companies' outlook for the future."
They revised down their earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 index in 2024 from $250 to $243, adding, "The bar is not high; as long as companies can cope with the adverse macroeconomic factors and see early signs of improvement from the rate cuts, stocks should be rewarded."
Investors will eventually focus on the "seven giants" stocks that drove this year's stock market rebound, including Apple and Nvidia. The market consensus expects their profits to grow by about 18% compared to last year, lower than the 36% growth rate in the second quarter. Since the second quarter earnings season, these seven stocks have lagged behind and have recently been consolidating, while the S&P 500 index's rally has expanded. Morgan Stanley's Wilson said:
"The fundamental reason for the 'seven giants' underperformance may be that earnings per share growth is slowing down compared to last year's strong growth rate. If earnings revisions indicate the 'seven giants' relative advantage, these stocks may once again outperform the market, as we did in the second quarter of this year and throughout 2023."