"Fed Rate Cut Expectations to Face Test as 'Terrifying Data' and Big Bank Earnings Loom"

The U.S. stock market closed at record highs once again last week as investors began to digest quarterly earnings reports, and debates intensified over what actions the Federal Reserve might take at its November interest rate meeting. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all rose by more than 1% last week, with the Dow and S&P 500 both reaching historical peaks on Friday.

In the coming week, the U.S. monthly retail sales report, dubbed the "Terrifying Data," will lead the economic calendar as investors assess whether the economy is accelerating after the unexpectedly strong September jobs report. On the corporate news front, major banks such as Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) will release their earnings reports, while United Airlines (UAL.US) and Netflix (NFLX.US) will also be in the spotlight with their earnings announcements.

Expectations for No Rate Cut by the Federal Reserve in November Grow Stronger

Over the past week, speculation that the Federal Reserve will not further reduce interest rates at its November meeting has been heating up. The September non-farm employment report helped alleviate concerns about a rapid deterioration in the job market. The September non-farm employment report showed that the unemployment rate fell again and that monthly job gains were among the highest for the year. On Thursday last week, the latest monthly CPI report indicated that core price increases exceeded expectations. The PPI released on Friday also showed a similar situation, with core prices rising by 2.8%, while Wall Street expected 2.6%.

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Some believe that, considering these data, and the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting showing that "some" officials might support a smaller rate cut, the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in November.

According to data from the CME Federal Reserve Watch tool, as of last Friday, the market estimated that the possibility of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in November is about 18%, up from 3% a week earlier.

Eric Wallerstein, Chief Market Strategist at Yardeni Research, said: "As long as the inflation rate does not approach 2% so sharply, and there is no crisis in the labor market (which I do not foresee), I believe there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to further reduce interest rates this year."

Retail Sales Data

Stronger-than-expected economic data has helped drive the "no rate cut" discussion. Investors will see another indicator of the U.S. economy this week, which is the September retail sales report to be released on Thursday. Economists expect retail sales in September to grow by 0.2% compared to the previous month; in August, they grew by 0.1%, breaking the downward trend predicted by economists.

The Jefferies economic team, led by Thomas Simons, wrote in a report to clients last Friday: "Retail sales are particularly likely to be a significant factor affecting the market, as the divergence in the data increases, and the scrutiny of consumer health has intensified. We caution that people should not overinterpret forecasts that deviate from the consensus (upward or downward), because retail sales measure spending with a very large weight, mainly on goods, not services, and are measured in nominal prices. Weakness may simply be due to the ongoing disinflation or deflation in goods."Corporate Earnings Reports

Large banks have essentially passed the Wall Street earnings season test, with the performance of the major banks that have reported—JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) and Wells Fargo (WFC.US)—also satisfying the market. At the beginning of this week, investors' focus will still be on financial stocks, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America set to release their earnings reports. On Thursday, after the market closes, attention will shift to Netflix's earnings report.

The stock price of this streaming media giant has risen by about 50% this year, approaching its historical peak. Wall Street expects Netflix to report earnings per share (EPS) of $5.16 and revenue of $9.77 billion; this means that earnings have grown by nearly 40% compared to the previous year.

However, Wall Street is actively discussing whether the stock can maintain its significant upward momentum. In the short term, Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet believes that Netflix's announcement of further price increases in the United States could become a catalyst for the stock. Bazinet wrote: "We expect Netflix's stock price to rise after the price increase announcement in the United States, but we anticipate that the stock price will eventually decline as investors' expectations for EPS of $25 by 2025 are dashed."

Issue of Rising U.S. Treasury Yields

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has hovered near 4.1% for the first time since the end of July. Over the past week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by about 30 basis points, as signs indicate that inflation may be more stubborn than initially imagined, while economic growth data remains stable, leading investors to reduce their expectations for interest rate cuts.

For most of the past few years, high yields have been a headwind for the stock market. However, Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, said last Thursday that yields may not have risen to a level that constitutes a significant headwind. Kantrowitz said: "I don't think the rebound in interest rates is that worrying for the stock market as a whole. But it is indeed a major factor."

Kantrowitz pointed out that sectors such as real estate and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index have benefited from investors' expectations for interest rate cuts, but have lagged in performance during the recent rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Kantrowitz added that the current role of rising interest rates in the market is to determine leading sectors, and not to drag down the S&P 500 Index. He said: "If interest rates continue to rise, I don't think it's a big problem for the stock market, unless it lasts for several months."