The Federal Reserve's rate cut enhances the profit-making effect in the Asia-Pacific markets, with Thailand likely to cut rates in the first quarter of next year. There is a significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials on the magnitude of the rate cut at the September meeting. The U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations, while employment data was weaker than anticipated, both of which disrupted market sentiment. Along with the broad rally in U.S. stocks, most of the Asia-Pacific stock markets recorded gains last week. Southeast Asian stock markets experienced mixed performances. Wang Xinjie, Chief Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered's Wealth Management Department in China, stated that since the Federal Reserve's rate hikes in 2022, the dollar's siphoning effect has impacted the entire Asia-Pacific region. Against the backdrop of rising risk-free interest rates, stocks in the Asia-Pacific region need to offer higher stock returns to maintain a risk premium relative to U.S. Treasury yields. If profits cannot be effectively expanded, this can only be achieved through a decrease in valuations. After the Federal Reserve entered the rate-cutting cycle, monetary easing brought relief to the dollar's siphoning effect, liquidity began to overflow, and provided certain support for the Asia-Pacific stock markets. Especially on the basis that the U.S. may achieve an economic "soft landing," it ensures the stability of external demand and further strengthens the economic fundamentals of the Asia-Pacific region.
In the recent stock market surge, some shareholders of listed companies quietly sold off stocks that were still under lock-up periods to cash out, with some cashing out more than 30 million yuan in just a few days. However, the penalties came before the money could even get warm. Recently, the securities regulatory bureaus of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Jiangsu have successively taken action against three shareholders of listed companies for their violations in reducing holdings. They were ordered to repurchase the illegally reduced shares and hand over all the price differences to the listed companies, and at the same time, record it in the integrity file of the securities and futures market. Among them, Wang某某 simultaneously reduced holdings of three listed companies, Huaxin Yongdao, Airong Software, and Baijia Technology, with a total profit of more than 30 million yuan. He was jointly named by the securities regulatory bureaus of Beijing, Shanghai, and Jiangsu.
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The central rate of bills in October may continue to decline, but the decline is limited. From a seasonal level, September is a big month for credit. From 2019 to 2023, the 6-month bill rates in September were generally higher than in August, with an average increase of 25 basis points. In September 2024, the 6-month bill rate was lower than in August, reflecting that credit demand is still relatively weak. The sustainability of the current economic fundamentals still needs to be observed. In October, residential credit may be somewhat stimulated, and corporate credit needs to focus on policy efforts. It is expected that overall credit demand still needs to be stimulated, and banks still have the demand to use bills to increase volume. The pressure on the capital market in October is expected to be generally controllable, but it is necessary to pay attention to the fluctuation risks formed by the tax period and bank-broker transfer on the capital market. It is expected that the central rate of 6-month bills in October may fall within the range of 0.8%-0.95%, the high point may rise to around 1.0%, and the low point may fall within the range of 0.7%-0.8%.
Short-term inflation fluctuations do not change the pace of rate cuts - comments on U.S. CPI data in September. In September, CPI inflation slightly exceeded expectations. The year-on-year CPI decreased from 2.5% to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, but higher than the expected 2.3%; the core CPI year-on-year rebounded from 3.2% to 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.2%. After the data was released, asset prices reacted calmly, and the expectation of rate cuts basically remained stable. The main reason may be: from a structural perspective, the CPI exceeding expectations may not be sustainable; and as the Federal Reserve's dual mandate risk has tended towards employment, correspondingly, there will be more patience for the bumps in the process of disinflation. Without extreme weather and supply chain shocks, the rebound in food and core commodity prices is not sustainable. In September, the used car wholesale price index fell again, indicating that the CPI used car prices may fall again in the short term. Against the backdrop of the basically balanced labor market and the slowdown in hourly wage resilience, the probability of a continuous rebound in super-core services is also low. More importantly, the largest weight, rent, fell significantly on a环比 basis and returned to a downward trend on a year-over-year basis, which to some extent dispelled market concerns that the disinflation process would stagnate again.