On October 14th, the national carbon market opened at 100.98 yuan/ton, with the highest price reaching 104.10 yuan/ton, the lowest price at 100.02 yuan/ton, and closed at 103.49 yuan/ton. The closing price increased by 2.52% compared to the previous day, maintaining a price above 100 yuan for three weeks since the carbon price broke the hundred mark again on September 24th.
On April 24th of this year, the carbon price historically broke the hundred mark for the first time and remained at a high level of over 100 yuan for more than three weeks until it fell back in mid-May. The carbon price breaking the hundred in April reached its peak on April 29th at 103.47 yuan/ton, and the recent break of the hundred has already surpassed the previous record high.
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Has the bull market for the carbon market arrived?
With the carbon price steadily sitting above 100 yuan/ton, many believe that the "bull market" characteristics of the carbon market have already emerged. The evidence is not only that the carbon price has broken the hundred but also that the trading volume is very active. On October 11th, the total transaction volume of the national carbon emission quotas was 971,092 tons, with a total transaction amount exceeding 95 million yuan.
Since the opening of the national carbon market, the carbon price has shown a slightly fluctuating and steadily rising trend. The comprehensive closing price of the second compliance period (2021, 2022) of the national carbon market fluctuated between 50 yuan/ton and 82 yuan/ton. In the third compliance period (2023, 2024), after breaking the hundred and then falling back, it broke the hundred again, with the price more than doubling from the initial 48 yuan/ton at the start.
Overall, the carbon price in China's carbon market shows a steady upward trend. Compared to the stock market, the carbon market usually shows a more stable trend. Why doesn't the carbon market fluctuate wildly like the stock market but remains relatively stable?
Unlike the stock market, the carbon market is more influenced by policies and market mechanisms rather than pure speculative behavior. The carbon market is primarily a policy market established to achieve national carbon emission reduction targets, promoting corporate emissions reduction through market-oriented means. Compared to the stock market, the trading object in the carbon market is carbon quotas, which are resources allocated based on policies, not representatives of corporate ownership. In the carbon market, the trading object is usually unique, that is, carbon quotas, leading to the existence of only one carbon trading price at a certain point in time, different from the varying stock prices of different companies in the stock market.
The carbon market usually adopts two methods: listing agreement transactions and bulk agreement transactions, while the stock market has various methods such as call auction and continuous auction. In the carbon market, enterprises choose the seller's quote based on their own carbon emission reduction costs, while investors in the stock market can apply for purchase prices based on their judgment of corporate value.
In addition, China's continuous efforts in carbon market construction have provided strong support for the stability of carbon prices. This year, with the expectation of the expansion of the national carbon market heating up, and the expected tightening of carbon quotas and the trend of stricter carbon regulatory policies, the stability of carbon prices has been strongly supported. In particular, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment is promoting the inclusion of key emission industries such as cement, aluminum electrolysis, and steel in the national carbon market. This expectation of expansion has made the carbon price tend to rise while remaining stable.
The design and operation of the carbon market are more aimed at achieving environmental policy goals rather than purely economic benefits, making it more stable compared to the stock market. As the carbon market continues to develop and improve, its trading rules, trading entities, trading products, and trading methods will become richer and more flexible. However, the nature of the policy market will not change, thus maintaining the stability of the market.Stable and rising carbon prices have attracted more investors and businesses to participate in the carbon market. Some publicly listed companies have achieved significant profits by selling carbon emission quotas. For instance, companies such as Huaneng Power International, Inc., Huadian Power International, Inc., and China Shenhua Energy Company Limited have all engaged in carbon market transactions.
Carbon emission quota trading is a way for companies to achieve carbon reduction and enhance financial performance. Studies have shown that the implementation of pilot Emission Trading Systems (ETS) has generally improved the financial performance of participating companies, with a more significant impact on non-state-owned enterprises and non-energy industry companies. This indicates that through carbon emission quota trading, companies may be able to enhance their financial performance by reducing carbon emissions.
Some companies fulfill their compliance obligations by participating in carbon market transactions, such as purchasing carbon emission quotas or National Certified Emission Reductions (CCERs). For example, PetroChina Company Limited (referred to as "PetroChina") and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Baosteel") are both actively involved in the carbon market. PetroChina has cumulatively purchased over 6 million tons of carbon emission quotas during the first compliance period, while Baosteel has fulfilled its compliance through various means, including the purchase of CCERs.
The price of carbon emission quotas is continuously increasing, which may affect the financial status of companies. For example, the average transaction price of the National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) in 2023 was 68.15 yuan/ton, a 23.24% increase from 2022. As carbon prices rise, companies with excess carbon quotas may gain additional income by selling these quotas.
Can we trade "carbon" like stocks?
Currently, individuals cannot participate in the national carbon market but can participate in the eight pilot carbon markets, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hubei, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, and Fujian. Individual investors can open trading accounts in the carbon emission rights exchanges of the eight pilot carbon markets by purchasing carbon emission quotas or reduction credits for investment. The account opening process usually includes steps such as qualification review, market entry test, online account opening, payment of account opening fees, obtaining a trading account number, and downloading the trading client.
Additionally, carbon inclusive projects attract public participation in carbon reduction by converting individual low-carbon behaviors into economic value. For example, the Ant Forest project accumulates "green energy" into tree-planting actions, which may participate in carbon trading in the future; as the carbon market develops, more financial products related to carbon emission rights may emerge, such as carbon emission rights mortgage loans, providing more ways for individual investors to participate in the carbon market.
It should be noted that participating in carbon trading requires certain professional knowledge and risk identification capabilities. Individual investors should fully understand relevant policies, market risks, and invest cautiously based on their own risk tolerance before participating in carbon trading. Moreover, the development of the carbon market and the policy environment may continue to change, and investors need to keep abreast of relevant information to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.